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Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T12:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T12:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32655/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The start of the CME is not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real-time due to a data gap from approx. 2024-08-09T11:42Z-16:42Z. The source may be similar to the potential source of CME: 2024-08-09T08:24:00-CME-001, with faint dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211 around 2024-08-09T09:36Z. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-12T13:01Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-09 18:09
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-09 12:53
 - Radial speed: 534.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N29E22
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.0 (N15E22). Peak at 2024-08-09 12:38
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 446.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-12 13:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.13 hours)
Lead Time: 62.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-09T23:01Z
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